Relive the Roller Coaster Ride of Thursday’s Win in Oakland
From 83% win probability in the 1st, to 84% to lose in the 3rd and back again, here are the biggest moments that shifted the tide in Oakland according to Baseball Savant.
T1: Julio Rodríguez’s Leadoff Double
On the first pitch of the game, the superstar rookie laced a double to left field. The ball left the bat at 109.1 MPH, which would prove to be the hardest hit ball of the afternoon. With the double, the Mariners win probability jumped from 50% to 56%.
Mitch Haniger’s RBI Single
The Mariners right fielder drove in the all-important first run of the game, and raised Seattle’s win probability to 63%
Cal Raleigh’s RBI Double
The power-hitting catcher did what he has been doing all season — hit for extra-bases. His 43rd extra-base hit (19 2B, 1 3B & 23 HR) raised the win probability to 76%.
Jesse Winker’s Bases Loaded Walk
The Mariners cashed in for their 3rd and final run of the opening frame of the game, with Winker battling back from an 0–2 deficit to work a walk and raise the Mariners win percentage to a robust 83%.
B3: Vimael Machin’s Leadoff Double in the 3rd
Machín began what looked at the time to the beginning of an epic come back victory for the A’s. The Mariners win probability fell to 72% after the double.
Stephen Vogt’s Bases Clearing Triple
The veteran catcher who announced his retirement earlier that day showed he still has some big hits left in him. His bases-clearing triple resulted in the 2nd-biggest win probability change of the game — from a 59% in the Mariners favor to 66% in favor of the home side (24% change).
Shea Langeliers RBI Double
Langeliers gave the Athletics their first lead of the game, ripping a double off the right field wall. Oakland raised their win probability to 75%.
Tony Kemp’s RBI Single
A thorn in the Mariners side all series long, Kemp struck again, singling to give the A’s a 2-run advantage, and a 84% probability to win.
T4: Jarred Kelenic’s Home Run
The Mariners have proved time and time again that while they may be down, you can never really count them out. Kelenic, in his first game since being recalled from Triple-A Tacoma, belted a 427-foot, 108.4 MPH blast out to left field. The homer marked the 3rd-farthest of his young career. The win probability again swung, this time in the Mariners favor from 74% to 63% A’s win.
T6: Ty France’s Leadoff Triple
After the game, France quipped “I’m good for one a year” during his post-game interview with Shannon Drayer on Seattle Sports 710 AM. His one this year was incredibly timely, as it swung the game back in the Mariners favor taking the win probability from 67% to just about an even split at 52% for an A’s win.
Jarred Kelenic’s RBI Double
Kelenic’s second extra-base hit of the game tied the game, but gave the Mariners their first lead in win probability since the catastrophic 3rd inning.
Adam Frazier’s 2 RBI Double
The biggest hit of the night, if you ask win probability. The well placed squibber down the left-field line gave the Mariners the lead — and a 78% chance to leave the Bay Area on a high-note. The Mariners never looked back from there, winning 9–5 after adding runs in the 7th and 8th innings to put the game to bed.
